THE CHIEF WHIP Paul Kehoe raised some eyebrows earlier this week when he predicted that Enda Kenny would not win a second term as Taoiseach, but a third term too.

The Wexford TD said he was confident that Enda Kenny would be Taoiseach "for a long time to come" - a remark which angered some people, believing it dismissed the role that voters could play in unseating him.

Whether Fine Gael remain popular enough to govern for a second or third term is a matter for the electorate nationwide - but the first step in becoming Taoiseach is being a TD in the first place.

So we thought we'd take a quick look at all the major party leaders to determine whether their hopes of high office could hit a snag before the new Dáíl even meets at all.

Fine Gael - Enda Kenny - Mayo (4)

Fine Gael's performance in Mayo last time around was a testament to the public's anger with Fianna Fáil, and the popularity of Enda Kenny and his running mates.

While Michael Ring and John O'Mahony already had strong local profiles, the eagerness to get Enda Kenny into power ensured that all three - plus Michelle Mulherin - got elected, in an unprecedented four-out-of-four for Fine Gael who won 65% of the vote.

Fianna Fáíl's Dara Calleary managed to weather the storm and retain his seat in the five-seater, but therein lies the problem for Fine Gael's outgoing four: it's now only a four-seat constituency.

John O'Mahony has been relocated to run in Galway instead, easing the pressure somewhat, but it seems desperately unlikely that the remaining three FG TDs can all keep their seats.

Michelle Mulherin only appears to make national impact through controversial and divisive remarks ("fornication" or "Skype-gate", anyone?) and it remains to be seen how that will impact her chances at home.

Michael Ring remains eminently popular in his native Westport and is likely to survive, but the same security is not afforded to Enda Kenny in Castlebar - who has had to hire a new PR handler to focus solely on constituency issues ahead of the election.

It does seem unlikely that the Taoiseach could lose his seat, but rarely has someone presided over so many divisive and unpopular policies in a time of such political division. The size of the crash barriers outside FG's conference in Castlebar earlier this year shows exactly how unpopular the Taoiseach might be locally - and his own brother Henry had a tough time keeping his seat in last year's council elections.

Fairly heavy security infrastructure outside the TF Royal Theatre in Castlebar for #fgnc15 pic.twitter.com/ieCZlQbgLT

— Gavan Reilly (@gavreilly) February 20, 2015

Dara Calleary, as a potential FF leader of the future, ought to be safe too - so the bigger issue is likely to be whether Michelle Mulherin can stave off a challenge from Fianna Fáil's Lisa Chambers, or whether Sinn Féin's Rose Conway-Walsh could also land a blow or two.

It may well the case that Mulherin loses to one or the other - and it might take too much of an opposition effort for both to make it in, and for Enda to be squeezed out.

Fianna Fáíl - Michael McGrath - Cork South-Central (4)

This is about as close to a 'group of death' as Election 2015/16 is likely to get. There are five existing TDs - all with a reasonable national profile - but one seat is being lost and other challengers still emerge.

Last time out the five seats were split among the traditional 'big three', with Fine Gael taking two (minister Simon Coveney and Health Committee chairman Jerry Buttimer), Fianna Fáil two (party leader Micheal Martin and finance spokesman Michael McGrath) and Labour one (Banking Inquiry chairman Ciaran Lynch). 

Whatever happens, one of those five will have to fall - but it could be more than that. Sinn Féin polled strongly in Cork in the local elections and Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire, their candidate here, is one of their brighest prospects for the future. It is almost unthinkable that Sinn Féin would not take one seat out of the four.

That leaves the incumbent five TDs scrambling for three seats. This writer has often thought the Fianna Fáil leadership question was better left until after the next election - because the current leader, and his most obvious successor, are both facing a big fight simply to retain their seats.

If Micheal Martin gets re-elected, and brings McGrath with him, FF will have won two seats out of four and Martin's leadership is surely secure. If he wins and McGrath doesn't, the leadership question is immediately quietened because McGrath would have struck many as Martin's most capable successor. 

If McGrath wins and Martin doesn't... in that case it's almost certainly Game Over for the FF leader and former minister.

Labour - Joan Burton - Dublin West (4)

Dublin West is currently a strange beast. Of the four incumbents there are two from the Anti-Austerity Alliance (Joe Higgins and Ruth Coppinger) but Higgins has indicated he won't be running next time and Coppinger will therefore inherit the mantle of standard-bearer.

That leaves the other incumbents as Leo Varadkar (FG) and Joan Burton (Lab), while the other big challenges will come from Sinn Féin's Paul Donnelly - who has come close, twice now, to winning a by-election - and FF's Jack Chambers, who muscled out David McGuinness in a contentious convention.

Chambers' win over McGuinness marked something of a culture shift for Fianna Fáil, opting for a middle-class medicine student over a working-class young working father. The former demographic may eat slightly more into Leo Varadkar's support, while the Sinn Féin vote would (in theory) eat into that of Labour.

Realistically the question therefore is whether Joan Burton can hang onto the 22.7% of the vote she won last time around (when Labour itself won 19.4% of the vote nationwide). If Labour only get 10% nationwide this time, that would suggest Burton's goose is cooked.

With the personalised opposition to Joan Burton seen most vividly in Jobstown (admittedly in another constituency) the outgoing Tánaiste may be held personally responsible for much of the ills that have faced the government - particularly when Ruth Coppinger is already a standard-bearer for that anger.

There are some bad omens for Joan Burton either - the last two outgoing Tánaistí, Michael McDowell and Mary Coughlan, both lost their seats.

Sinn Féin - Gerry Adams - Louth (5)

It's difficult to see any problems for the Sinn Féin president here. FF's Seamus Kirk is retiring and it will be a few weeks yet before a successor is chosen. FG's Fergus O'Dowd and Peter Fitzpatrick are both running again - the former perhaps insulated from defeat by his Irish Water-bashing, the latter looking a little vulnerable.

The other incumbent is Labour's Ged Nash, who might also be looking over his shoulder, but may be saved by the fact that Sinn Fein already has a seat, and isn't just looking for its first.

That said, Adams has a running mate this time in Imelda Munster who cleaned up in Drogheda in the local elections and a Sinn Féin double is far from unthinkable. Either way, Adams is certainly safe.

Renua - Lucinda Creighton & Green - Eamon Ryan - Dublin Bay South (4) 

A fascinating one, this. Dublin South-East is gaining much more turf but remaining a four-seater, meaning interesting challenges for three of the four incumbents.

Last time around Fine Gael and Labour halved the constituency (Eoghan Murphy and Lucinda Creighton for FG; Ruairi Quinn and Kevin Humphreys for Labour) but with a redrawn map, Quinn is retiring and Creighton has jumped ship.

Throw in the high-profile candidacy of Sinn Féin's Chris Andrews (a high-profile Fianna Fáil defector) and Fianna Fáil's own councillor Jim O'Callaghan (brother of RTE's Miriam) and both party leaders may be under the kosh.

Lucinda's immediate 'successor' within FG is Rathmines-based Kate O'Connell, who may well retain much of Creighton's middle-class vote, and it seems that both Creighton and Eamon Ryan may have some trouble here.

Ryan could draw some comfort from the fact that he polled quite strongly in the European elections, and he was a councillor in this constituency a decade ago, but however tough it will be for Creighton, Ryan's task is all the harder.

The Social Democrat Troika

It ought to be plain sailing for most of the Social Democrat leaders. Catherine Murphy's profile has been served well by the IBRC furore and she ought to be safe in Kildare North (4), while Stephen Donnelly ought to have a much easier time keeping his seat in five-seater Wicklow than he had in winning it last time out.

Roisin Shortall may have the toughest battle of the three, in Dublin Mid-West, but her early departure from Labour on an honorable-sounding point of principle means she is untainted by the same trouble that faces her former party colleague John Lyons.

SF's incumbent Dessie Ellis ought to be safe there, while a third seat may be a challenge between FG's Noel Rock and FF's Paul McAuliffe, but Shortall will fancy her chances of prevailing.