IT'S NOW INCREASINGLY likely that Friday 10 October will be the polling day for by-elections to fill the two seats in the Dáil.
That date has been confirmed as the polling day for another by-election - to fill a seat in the Seanad.
A seat has become vacant after Deirdre Clune was elected as an MEP in May - and therefore forfeited her right to be a senator.
Because polling in Seanad by-elections is limited to TDs and other Senators, the government is guaranteed to win the seat - and simply has to choose who it will appoint.
Various newly-elected councillors have been touted for the position, particularly those who represent areas where Fine Gael will have no outgoing TD in the running for the next general election.
However, the decision to fix the Seanad by-election also means it's virtually certain that the two Dáil by-elections - in Dublin South-West and Roscommon-South Leitrim - will also be held on that day.
That's because those seats are also vacant as a result of the European elections - and the appointments of Brian Hayes and Luke 'Ming' Flanagan respectively.
It would be seen as convenient to fill all three of the vacant seats on a single day.
The prospect of holding the two Dáil by-elections on October 10 is further strengthened by the fact that they will be held the weekend before the Budget.
Although the government is unlikely to win either seat - with Sinn Féín expected to take the Dublin South-West seat, and Fianna Fáil tipped to win in Roscommon-South Leitrim - it would likely prefer to have the elections out of the way before having to announce another tricky budget.
The fallout from the by-elections would also act as something of a distraction to the media, and ensure a smaller-than-usual amount of Budget leaks in the run-up to the day of the announcements.
The by-elections must take place by the end of November at the very latest, as vacancies must be filled within six months of arising.
If the government does choose to fill the Dáil seats on that date - or on any date before the Budget - it will have to move the writ for the two by-elections on the first day after the summer recess, Wednesday 17 September.
Once the writs have been moved, a by-election must take place within 15 to 21 days, excluding Sundays.
