Rassie Erasmus was brutally honest at the launch of this season’s Champions Cup in Dublin last week.
Munster’s new Director of Rugby was asked for his opinion on his side’s pool for the coming season, with Racing 92, Leicester Tigers and Glasgow Warriors awaiting them in Pool 1.
Erasmus joked that after a brief moment looking through the group for the easy game, he realised that in Pool 1, the easy game was Munster.
It was said in jest – the kind of self-deprecating humour most coaches use to liven the mood at these public launches – but it’s probably true for most sides in the competition.
Aside from Zebre in Pool 2, almost every team in the competition will back themselves to be able to beat another on their home patch.
Limit the damage on the road, and you’re still alive by the time the final rounds roll around in January.
With the reduction of the competition to 20 teams in the last couple of years, the pool stage has become more cut-throat, more ruthless and more open.
Erasmus may have been joking when he said Leicester, Glasgow and Racing will be putting a target on Munster’s back, but you can bet he’s doing the same with them. Likewise Connacht, likewise Leinster and likewise Ulster.
While Saracens look a cut above the rest, the Irish teams are sitting in pools where anything seems possible.
CONNACHT
“The big difference this year is we’ve earned the right to be here.”
John Muldoon couldn’t have been any clearer.
While previous jaunts into the top competition in Europe brought famous wins against Harlequins, Biarritz and Toulouse, the fact that they enter the 2016/17 tournament on merit is huge.
Muldoon says they never doubted themselves in their three previous years in the competition, but spoke with immense pride that nobody can question their eligibility to line out this time around.
Pat Lam was equally bullish. While they’ll be expected to do the business against Zebre, Pool 2 looks lethal with Toulouse and Wasps.
Adopting the fearless attitude that helped them win the Pro 12 last season, Lam said the target isn’t moral victories, but qualification.
“We’re here, now it’s time to deliver.
“The reason why we did it all to be here was now to play in it and play well.
“As I said before, no Irish province made it through last year and we saw the doom and gloom that came around with that. We want to do our best and we know the other three do to make sure there’s an Irish province in the knockout stages.”
The presence of Zebre gives hope for that. Connacht, Wasps and Toulouse will all be expected to win home and away against the Italians, so it’s likely Pool 2 will have two qualifiers for the quarter finals.
Pat Lam’s side would more than likely still need to win a game apiece against Toulouse and Wasps, but after coming through a rocky patch with back-to-back five-pointers in the Pro 12, they look to be hitting form at just the right time to have a huge cut off the French this weekend in Galway.
LEINSTER
You can’t win the Champions Cup in your first two games, but after last season Leinster know you can go a long way to being knocked out.
While Leo Cullen’s side face two trips to France in Pool 4, they’re more than familiar with the challenge posed by Castres, who they face in their opening game at the RDS on Saturday.
In terms of form, they seem to be clicking all over the pitch.
They’ve depth in the pack; Cian Healy looks refreshed after a summer off, Tadhg Furlong is growing with each week, and Ian Nagle looks to have been an astute signing for the second row.
Sean O’Brien is expected to feature at some point over the opening games against Castres and Montpellier, adding to a backrow already loaded with International experience.
Against Munster last week, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose lacked any real teething problems, and looked like a seasoned partnership in midfield.
In nine trips to Ireland Castres have never come away with a win, and after being hit for 50 points on their last visit to Dublin in 2015, Leinster will be expected to pick up four points at the very least on Saturday.
A bigger challenge waits in Montpellier in round 2, but if Leo Cullen’s side can travel to France with four or five points already in the bag, it’ll set them up well for a major crack at topping the group.
ULSTER
Les Kiss is gatecrashing one of last season’s best parties.
In the pool stages last year, Clermont, Bordeaux and Exeter all faced off in the most competitive pool of the competition, with Ulster now replacing the Ospreys in the quartet.
With minutes left in that pool, any one of the four teams could have made it to the quarter finals, Exeter topping the four with just 16 points, Clermont bottom with 15. In contrast, the 18 points Ulster picked up in Pool 1 left them short of a best runner-up spot.
Again, the prospect of two teams coming through this pool looks slim, but on the flip side any one of the four can top it.
Despite last week’s inter-provincial defeat to Connacht, Ulster look sharp, especially in the backline.
Charles Piutau had a stinging presence in the Wasps side last year, as they marched into the semi-finals, and with the potential for bonus points to have a major impact on this group, their ability to score tries is huge.
Any trip into France is notoriously difficult, and with four of Bordeaux’s five wins so far in the Top 14 coming on their own patch, it highlights the scale of the challenge for Ulster.
But if they can keep tabs with a big Bordeaux pack, their undeniable talent behind the scrum could see them home.
A win would be huge, but with all four sides expected to take points off each other throughout the group, a losing bonus point wouldn’t be the end of the world.
MUNSTER
Glasgow Warriors head coach Gregor Townsend was quick to note that Muster are a different beast in European rugby, but the reality is that in the last couple of seasons the former giants have lost their fear factor.
What cut most Munster fans deepest though in the past couple of seasons wasn’t necessarily failing to get out of the pool, but rather the ease at which they were eliminated.
After the period they’ve been through, being in contention for qualification heading into the final round game at Thomond Park against Racing 92 would signal a major improvement.
At the very least, this year Munster have to simply give themselves a chance.
First up is a daunting game against Racing 92 in Paris, with the added narrative of coming up against Munster legend Ronan O’Gara, now a coach with the Top 14 champs.
It’s been a reasonable start for Erasmus at Munster. At times things have looked very good, while the defeat to Leinster showed the extent of the work still to do.
A losing bonus point against Racing this weekend, while keeping the French side to just four points wouldn’t be a bad return, but only if they can ensure four points in just over a week at Thomond Park against Glasgow.
Long-term for this Munster team, performances seem to be more important than results.
