Today's papers seem conflicted on the impact of yesterday's Exchequer Returns and what they mean for the next Budget - and understandably so.
The Irish Times and Irish Examiner both lead with warnings from senior ministers that Budget 2015 - which is only six weeks away - won't be a giveaway, although the Irish Independent splashes with a suggestion that the Budget will in fact be the softest in years.
Both are true. The figures are the strongest we've seen in five or six years, and the papers have good reason to offer mixed messages: although Joan Burton said the finances were "in a good place", she did warn of managing expectations - while Michael Noonan issued a statement which simultaneously said there was no need for €2 billion in austerity measures, but still telling us he was going to introduce more measures than strictly needed.
The average punter can often find it difficult to distil the truth from these mixed messages - amid talk of endless billions and abstract percentages.
So it might be helpful to take a few moments to translate those percentages into real money - and to explain just where the public finances are at the moment.
Turn it into real money
First of all, let's go back to 2006. The economy was still going well, property prices were higher than ever before, and after running the country for a year, the government had over €2.2 billion to spare.
By 2009, stamp duty income had collapsed, public spending had rocketed (because of the number of people losing their jobs and joining the Dole) and all of a sudden the State found itself €24.6 billion euro in the red. The State was borrowing over €46,803 every minute, simply to keep itself going.
Ever since then - and having been forced to spend billions saving the banking sector - the State has been in an uphill battle to bridge this gap and balance the books. Simply put, the State has to try and cut its own spending, while also increasing its income through taxes, to bridge the gap and turn €24.6 billion to zero.
We've come a long way. Last year the deficit was down to €11.5 billion - less than half of what it was four years previously - and the plan in Budget 2014 was to bring it down even further, to "4.8% of GDP" (which translates to around €8.2 billion. That's still a huge deficit in the ordinary scheme of things, but represents huge progress in the last five years.
And that's where yesterday's Exchequer Returns come in. The government's tax revenue for the first two-thirds of the year is almost €1 billion higher than expected, and although we're spending slightly more than we planned (mostly because the Health budget was too small to begin with), we're now in track to beat the target with a lot of room to spare.
Instead of having the deficit at 4.8% of GDP by the end of the year, it's likely to clock in at less than 4% - somewhere around €6.8 billion. Next year, under long-standing EU rules, we have to get the deficit down again - this time to "below 3% of GDP". In real terms, that's a gap of around €5.3 billion.
So what about next year?
The original plan for the next Budget, as you might have heard, was to achieve this by implementing another €2 billion of "austerity measures" - in other words, by increasing taxes and cutting spending. Given how more people are getting back to work - paying income tax instead of having to claim social welfare - it's now certain that €2 billion won't be necessary.
In fact, because people are going to have to pay water charges next year, some people think the targets can be achieved by doing nothing - if we keep doing exactly what we're doing, the target can achieve itself. And because the government now has a little bit of leeway, there's talk of reversing some of the tax increases - raising the barrier after which the higher tax band kicks in, or lowering the rate of the Universal Social Charge.
But remember - although we're ahead of target, there's still a pretty big gap. The government has repeated time and time again that it's committed to achieving the 3% target by next year - in other words, bringing the deficit to around €5.3 billion by the end of 2015. And while there might be a sense of "mission accomplished" when that's achieved, it still means Ireland will be running a huge deficit - borrowing €10,000 every minute just to pay Gardaí, doctors, teachers and the likes.
That's why it's important to keep some perspective about where we're heading right now. Yes, income tax or USC might be cut in the next Budget - putting more money in our pockets. And yes, the public finances are doing far better than expected, and are recovering more quickly than anyone would have hoped.
But the public finances are still in dire shape, and even when we reach the EU's targets by the end of next year, we'll still have to do even more for another couple of years to bring the deficit to zero by 2018 (which we agreed to do under the Fiscal Compact, which we approved in a referendum in 2012). Some of this might take care of itself - hopefully there'll be a continued fall in unemployment, and an increase in the numbers who can go to work and pay taxes - but more measures will inevitably be needed.
To borrow a phrase, there's a lot done, but a lot more to do. Yes, the next Budget will be far milder than anything we've seen since 2008 - but it won't be easy either.
It would serve both the government, and the public, to tread carefully and not to expect too much when Michael Noonan gets to his feet in the Dail to announce Budget 2015 in six weeks' time.
