There’s obviously an element of crystal ball-vision in analysing a fixture list almost two years away, but on early inspection, Joe Schmidt will be relatively pleased with the hand Ireland have been dealt for the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan.
The first stroke of luck came a few months ago when the pools were drawn. Scotland may have beaten Ireland when the sides last met in the Six Nations in February, but it’s no disrespect to suggest that they were the second seeds we wanted to face rather than France, South Africa or Wales.
Japan will have a home-backing in 2019, but when Argentina were a possible opponent among the third seeds, they were also a favourable option.
This morning, World Rugby revealed the layout of the fixtures, with Ireland opening their campaign against the Scots in Yokohama on Sunday September 22, before meeting the hosts the following Saturday.
The games against Scotland and Japan will likely be the toughest of the pool stages, and while it initially seems daunting, it provides more opportunity than obstacle.
The obstacle is their rest. The turnaround from Scotland to Japan gives Ireland five rest days, with four days to prepare for the meeting with a European qualifier (likely to be Romania). After that, the remaining game – which looks like being against Samoa – comes off an eight-day break.
However, even though the five-day swing between the Scotland and Japan games may seem challenging, several other Tier 1 nations will have just three rest days between some of their games. New Zealand, South Africa, Scotland, Italy, England, France, Argentina and Wales will all have to deal with that very short turnaround at some point in the pool stages.
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Playing the two toughest games early also gives Ireland more clarity. Should they come away with two wins, it leaves them in pole position to top the pool, and allows Joe Schmidt to rotate his selections ahead of what you would assume will be a quarter-final appearance.
In 2015, Ireland blitzed Canada and Romania aside in their opening games, before making it three wins from three against Italy. It meant the final pool game against France was make-or-break for top spot. While Ireland won, the physical and emotional toll of the victory left them flat against Argentina a week later. Another quarter-final defeat.
Playing the tougher games early in the pool certainly won’t guarantee that Ireland will top the pool. But what it will do is give Ireland a clearer picture. If Ireland are beaten by Scotland in the opening game, the likelihood is that they will be playing for second place, and a potential quarter final against New Zealand. Time will be on their side to pick up the pieces.
Breaking into the final four has to be the minimum goal in 2019. While Ireland probably played to their level up to and including the 2003 tournament in Australia, the failure in 2007, along with the underwhelming quarter final defeats in 2011 and 2015 make 2019 a defining tournament.
Early indicators suggest they’re being given every opportunity to make the semi-final breakthrough. Now they have two years to make it happen.
