In its 21 previous seasons, the Premier League title race has come down to the final day just six times. On all of those occasions, there have been two teams still in the running, but such is the tightness of the current battle, that this time there could be three or even four.
The surprise defeat of Chelsea at Aston Villa has changed everything, and if they fail to win at home to Arsenal this Saturday lunchtime, things could get even tighter. They still have to visit Liverpool, and as that comes just a fortnight before the end of the season, they could be going to Anfield with a chance to all but clinch the title.
Apart from those meetings with the two sides currently closest to them in the table, all of Chelsea’s other matches are against teams in the bottom half. But as most of those teams are likely to be fighting relegation when they play them, the unpredictability which comes into play more than ever at this time of the season, is a real factor.
Two weeks before they welcome Chelsea to Anfield, Liverpool will host Manchester City, a meeting of two sides who have already scored 147 league goals between them this season. There’s also a tricky home match against Tottenham on Sunday week, but given the rampant form they’re in at the moment, the question of whether Liverpool are genuine contenders is no longer relevant.
The prospects of double contenders Arsenal could be defined by the next week and a half. Even a draw at Chelsea would give them massive hope, although they may well need to win at home to Manchester City seven days later (and surely need to beat Swansea in north London in between).
The City match will be followed by a visit to Everton, who rarely get beaten on their own ground, but after that the Gunners’ final stretch sees them at home to West Ham, Newcastle and West Brom, and away to Hull and Norwich. They’ll fancy their chances of finishing with five wins in a row, so if they can go into that run within a few points of the lead, they’ll have a great chance.
As for Manchester City themselves, their trump card is having six home matches still to play. Of the sides they face in those matches, only Aston Villa are currently in the top half (and even that only on goal difference). But even given United’s current struggles, the derby at Old Trafford next week is a potential slip-up. City’s next two away matches after that will be at Arsenal and Liverpool, and they have to go to Everton on the penultimate weekend.
The Premier League has never seen a run-in, quite like the one it looks to be heading into now.
