It's now just a day to go until Budget 2015 is announced in the Dáil.
But, typically, most of the good detail has already made its way into the public domain in one way or another.
Here's our quick guide on what you can expect tomorrow:
Tax:
- Michael Noonan's likely to announce a 'road-map' with several years of cuts to payroll taxes (i.e. to income tax, PRSI and Universal Social Charge). This could be over either two or three years - personally, I think it'll be three years, with the implication being that you only guarantee the third year of tax cuts by retaining the current government when the election arrives a few months beforehand.
- Either way, tomorrow you should expect the higher rate of income tax to be lowered from 41% to 40% - which will save you €10 for every thousand you earn above the cutoff point.
- That cutoff point will also be raised, from €32,800 - most likely by €1,000, up to €33,800 instead. This means anyone who earns above €33,800 will immediately benefit to the tune of €210 next year.
There's also likely to be some sort of cut on Universal Social Charge – but the details of that are far less clear.
Currently USC is levied at three different rates, depending on how much you earn - and those thresholds are likely to be jimmied around in some way.
The mechanics aren't clear, but the ultimate outcome will be that most people will end up benefiting by a modest amount - perhaps in the region of €150.
Water:
The controversial water charges will be offset to a degree - though it's not entirely clear how, with mixed reports on how the government will ease the burden.
Currently anyone on the household benefits package (which is some 410,000 people) will get an annual allowance of €100 to help cover their water charges.
Today's papers have three conflicting reports on how this will be extended:
- The €100 allowance could also be given to those on fuel allowance too - meaning another 210,000 homes
- The long-term unemployed (of which there are over 175,000) will be given a discounted rate, where they will only pay €75 per adult per year
- A more traditional tax credit will be introduced for lower earners to help them cover the costs.
There could be some hidden benefits for some of the people who fall into those packages. Some of those options will mean an allowance or tax credit for families who aren't even liable for water charges in the first place.
For example, some households on the fuel allowance will have access to their own wells and septic tanks - so if the government gives extra money to those homes to cover water, that's essentially a free payment for households who won't actually have a water bill arriving in January.
Elsewhere:
The ‘old reliables’ of tobacco, alcohol and petrol are likely to go untouched - despite a report last week that suggested there'll be a 10c hike on the price of a pint.
It's generally thought that alcohol has taken enough of a hammering, with €1.50 on a bottle of wine over the last two years, so that sector should be safe. Meanwhile, although the price of petrol and diesel has fallen slightly in the last couple of months, the prices are generally seen as high - and won't be hiked in a budget that's aimed at 'giving back' to most
The lower rate of VAT for tourism and hospitality services, of 9 per cent, will be made permanent. (This would also be another way of adding to the price of a pint!)
The levy on private pension funds will be cut, from 0.75% to 0.15%, in line with previous promises. It'll then be cut entirely from next year. This may seem small, but the levy has been worth around €700 million a year to the current government, so a cut will be fairly costly for the State itself.
Education will get funding for 1,000 new teachers, as indicated earlier in the year, while the Health budget will get a €300 million boost (though whether that allows for the €510 million overspend for 2014 remains to be seen).
The ‘Double Irish’ corporate tax loophole, beloved by Google and others, is likely to be scrapped for new firms (with perhaps a timeline for elimination for older ones). It's been claimed that employers will instead be given some sort of incentive for "patent boxes" - a legal move to make it more attractive to register intellectual property in Ireland, instead of a lower-tax place like Bermuda - but that might not come immediately.
There's also likely to be some good news for farming families. It's expected that there'll be changes in Capital Gains Tax to make it cheaper to inherit a farm from a relative, as well as better tax treatment to encourage long-term leasing.
Gavan Reilly is Today FM's political correspondent. He'll be reporting live on the hour, tomorrow afternoon, as the full details of Budget 2014 are announced. http://twitter.com/gavreilly
