I don't believe in Ante Post betting personally, but a lot of you do, so when I saw the weights come out for the Grand National on Tuesday it caught my attention in terms of identifying horses that may be value in the betting right now for the famous steeplechase over 4 miles plus on Saturday April 8th. 40 years ago, the legendary 'Red Rum' (pictured) won the race for the third time, with Tommy Stack in the saddle.
Irish eyes were smiling 12 months ago as the Mouse Morris trained 'Rule the World' gave young jockey David Mullins victory in his first ride in the race. It was an emotional victory for all concerned, including owner Michael O'Leary of Gigginstown Stud.
Airline magnate O'Leary won't have many runners in the race this year judging by his comments over the handicap marks allotted by British Horseracing Authority official Phil Smith to 'Don Poli', 'Empire of Dirt' and 'Outlander'. He feels his horses have been unfairly treated in terms of the weights they will carry.
This year, it looks an even more wide open National than usual. We know the top weight, 'Outlander', won't run, but with horses such as 'Champagne West' and 'The Last Samuri' in the field, I don't expect the weights to go up that much.
There used to be a method for picking Grand National winners. Choose a great jumper carrying a weight of 11 stone or less, as all winners between 1983 and 2005 carried 11 stone or less than that. Now, with a policy of trying to attract classier horses and the modification of the fences to make them easier, a good travelling horse that can stay up with the pace and last the stamina test is more important.
So here are three horses I have come up with if you fancy taking an each way price now rather than waiting for the day.
Blaklion at 25/1
Last year English trainer Nigel Twiston Davies sent out 'Blaklion' to win the staying novices' chase at Cheltenham, the RSA Chase. This 8 year old horse is not the biggest, but he is agile, has an engine and the way he powered up the hill suggests to me that he wouldn't be found wanting at the Aintree elbow if he's in contention. Ground doesn't seem to be an issue and on 10-10 now, he has a nice weight. Twiston Davies saddled another 8 year old, 'Bindaree', to win the race in 2002, so he knows the time of day and this is the plan.
Carole's Destrier at 33/1
Blaklion was 5th in one of the key trials of the season, the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury back in November. The horse that won the Hennessy, Native River, has gone on to better things, taking the Welsh National and the Grade 2 Denman Chase. The horse which was 2nd, the Neil Mulholland trained 'Carole's Destrier' finished like a train and the form has been franked. This horse can be in and out in terms of form, but he jumps and stays and Mulholland was unlucky when a previous runner, 'The Druids Nephew', fell when in contention in the National 2 years ago. So Mulholland knows how to get his charges ready.
O'Faolain's Boy at 33/1
This is a difficult horse for his Welsh trainer Rebecca Curtis to keep fit, but on his day he is high class. He won the RSA Chase in 2014 so he has mixed it with the best. He has plummeted down the weights to 10-6 and should get a run. The ground won't be an issue. He ran very well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year and he either didn't stay the distance or just got tired. If he does arrive in good shape in April and if his stamina holds, 33/1 may look like a steal.
