When a team is out of form, everything becomes a big deal.
All of a sudden, the opposition’s strengths become stronger. Our own weaknesses become weaker. The pressure builds.
Six weeks ago, most fans would have pencilled in the penultimate game against Italy as one where we could flex the muscles a bit. While it would have been a stretch to presume Ireland would be on course for a third Six Nations in a row, most would have been confident that they’d still have a chance to win it at the very least.
Instead of tomorrow being a chance to boost the points difference ahead of another manic final day of permutations, it’s is now about winning. End of. And we can see it in the selection.
Jared Payne is back, and the Irish defence will be glad for it. After Rob Kearney’s hamstring ended his best laid plans, it seems that the stars were aligning for Payne to slot in at 15, with Stuart McCloskey continuing alongside Robbie Henshaw in the centre.
However as we’ve learned, it’ll be Simon Zebo covering for Kearney, with Payne back in the number 13 shirt.
The rest is as you were. Sexton and Murray combine in the half backs, Earls and Trimble are on the wings.
In the pack, it’s the usual frontline of Ross, Best and McGrath.
Ultan Dillane will have to settle for an impact role from the bench, with Donnacha Ryan and Devin Toner continuing in the second row, while Josh van der Flier earns his second cap in the backrow, alongside the brute force of CJ Stander and Jamie Heaslip.
It’s a safe team; a selection designed to grind out a win rather than exert dominance. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with any of the selections, but it’s lacking excitement and edginess.
Listening to Joe Schmidt justify his selections yesterday, it’s obvious great thought and detail has gone into it. But it could be argued that there’s too much thought.
In the games against France and Wales in particular, it seemed like every Irish attacking phase had been rehearsed, and when something went wrong, nobody knew how to react. Players were fulfilling roles in a mechanical way. It almost seemed like there was no identity or instinct to the play.
Against England, the improvements were clear. The attack varied more, with Ireland using more of the pitch to gain yards. It seemed to work.
The fear is that with Stuart McCloskey watching the game on tv or in the stands, Ireland are indicating that they want to grind out the victory, and that the fear of losing is determining selection rather than the will to win.
With Fergus McFadden on the bench Ireland have a competent, versatile and experienced optrion, but they’re lacking the spark that McCloskey would have provided.
Equally on the wings, it looked like an ideal opportunity to add some spark. Craig Gilroy is a natural finisher and his consistent performances for Ulster warrant more than training time in the Irish set-up.
With Finlay Bealham potentially earning his first cap tomorrow, it brings to five the number of new players given test experience in this Championship. But only for injury, all but CJ Stander would probably have missed out.
Italy ran France close, but against England and Scotland, they showed naivety in defence and leaked scores. If Ireland attack space tomorrow, it should be a first victory of the campaign.
The worry is that they’ll continue trying to wear teams down, looking for contact and picking off points. It’s a reflection on the gameplan so far that the only two tries so far have come from Conor Murray burrowing over from short distance.
If they approach the game like they did against England, they’ll win. If they don’t, it could be a nervous afternoon.
England v Wales (Saturday)
The two best sides of the tournament, it’s set to be a championship decider.
To whet the appetite further, it’s been a week of verbal uppercuts from both camps. Welsh scrum coach Robin McBryde took the first shot, highlighting Joe Marler’s tendency to bend the rules at scrum time.
Never one to bite his tongue, Eddie Jones fought back by saying the Welsh need to look in the mirror, claiming they scrummage “Terribly illegally”.
The individual battles will be immense. Taulupe Faletau and Billy Vunipola will be at the base of either pack, and the childhood friends will be more than willing tear strips out of each other for 80 minutes.
The backlines glisten. Joseph, Watson and Brown are all gamechangers for the English, while Manu Tuilagi will no doubt be unleashed to wreak havoc in the second half.
But Wales have grit. Dan Biggar is the form outhalf in the northern hemisphere, Gareth Davies breaks from rucks with ease, and their backrow mop up ball.
Even if it’s ugly, it’ll be enthralling.
Scotland v France (Sunday)
Scotland, your time is now.
France may have beaten Ireland, but they’re a shadow of their former selves. It’s 10 years since the last Scottish victory against the French, but they’ve shown in the World Cup and in the games against Wales and Italy that they have more than enough skill to stretch Guy Noves’ side.
Vern Cotter is on the verge of a breakthrough with this Scottish group. The all-Edinburgh front row butchered the Italian pack last time out, while the Gray brothers in the second row are formidable at the lineout. John Hardie’s arrival has been groundbreaking, with the New Zealand-born flanker looking like a complete all-rounder.
Laidlaw is as good a kicker as any, while behind him Finn Russell, Duncan Taylor, Tommy Seymour and Stuart Hogg look like players who just love rugby.
After winning their first Six Nations game in two years against Italy last time out, they now need to push on and lay down a marker.
They’ll hardly have a better chance than against a French side deep in an identity crisis.
