They have us sussed.
The low risk gameplan worked for a while, but by now, teams know what to expect.
Seeking contact over space has yielded just one try in two games, and just three points in the second half of both Six Nations games so far this season.
It’s prioritising power over skill. Ireland are putting too much emphasis on bulldozing their way through the opposition, and at the moment it’s all too predictable.
The injuries are stacking up too. Sean O’Brien’s likely done a hamstring. Dave Kearney’s shoulder injury might end his tournament, although that one can be credited to a cheap shot rather than an attritional gameplan.
A lot was said about the six day turnaround being harsh on Ireland, who had a long list of sore bodies after another bruiser against Wales last week.
But a lot of the sore bodies are born from the reluctance to expand. Offloading is discouraged, and space isn’t sought. As a result, the collisions are big and plentiful.
Outside shoulders aren’t being attacked, and protecting the ball seems more important than getting it over the line.
Offloads are deemed too high risk, making the attack all too easy to read.
Forwards are reluctant to pass, crashing the ball into the opposition, who know exactly what to expect. CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip are all strong, powerful and reliable ball carriers, but if they aren’t getting over the gainline, there needs to be a plan B.
Yesterday, CJ Stander carried 19 times for a return of 14 metres. In less than 20 minutes on the pitch, Sean O’Brien took the ball on six times, and with 16 metres gained his untimely exit was crucial.
Between the three starting, and Tommy O’Donnell coming off the bench, the Irish backrow carried 33 times for just 36 metres. On nine occasions they passed the ball, five of which came from Tommy O’Donnell.
In contrast, I’ve taken a glance at the Welsh stats from yesterday’s game against Scotland. This is far from a definitive answer to the problems, but it does show how a side with a similarly powerful backrow can vary things.
The four backrow players that appeared for Wales yesterday brought the ball into contact just 15 times, with an identical number of passes between them. Dan Lydiate, even in his 20 minutes on the pitch, passed the ball every time he got it.
Obviously, conditions in Paris yesterday did nothing for a passing game, but when Ireland played Wales last week, the differences in the backrows were even more striking.
The four backrows on the day for Ireland carried 53 times, passing just nine times, while the Welsh had just 27 carries, with an impressive 21 passes.
New Zealand showed us during the World Cup the benefit of having forwards comfortable passing the ball, trusting their basic skills to bring faster players into the game.
Ireland’s only try so far in the championship came from Conor Murray varying the play.
Close to the Welsh line last week, CJ Stander was standing as the first receiver on his right. Knowing the Welsh were ready for the Munster man to try burrow over from short range, Murray went himself.
He was over the line before Justin Tipuric even realised it.
Being physical isn’t something Ireland should stop. In Stander, Heaslip and O’Brien, they undoubtedly have one of the most powerful backrows around. But the repetition is becoming predictable.
France offered nothing yesterday, but they didn’t have to. They trusted their defence to soak up the tackles, and eventually picked off enough points.
Ireland’s style might lend itself to a mean defence, but it’s worth nothing if the plan doesn’t change in attack.
More variety in the backrow won’t correct all the problems, but it might just keep defenders guessing long enough to create a chance.
