For Munster and Leinster, things are simple. For Connacht, things are complicated. And for Ulster, things are unlikely.
The final round of pool games kick off tonight in the Champions Cup, with Leinster looking to secure home advantage in the last eight of the competition, but with plenty of teams still in the hunt for their places in the knock-out stage, we're set for a long weekend of arithmetic before the quarter final line-up is confirmed on Sunday evening.
So with that in mind, we've got out our calculators and done the sums. Here's what your team needs this weekend.
LEINSTER
The permutations are straight-forward for Leo Cullen’s side.
With qualification wrapped-up following last week’s hammering of Montpellier, it’s all eyes on a home quarter and a top seeding tonight in France.
They kick off against Castres at Stade Pierre-Antoine at 7.45 knowing a win of any kind will guarantee home advantage in the last 8, while their huge points difference of +140 means that a bonus point win should be enough to finish as the top seed.
In the unlikely event of a draw, Leinster would hit 23 points in total, and that should be enough to seal their fate. Only a combination of wins for Munster, Clermont, Saracens and a bizarre 62 point win for Connacht would prevent a quarter final date in Dublin.
Castres will also be hoping to keep alive their quarter final ambitions, and should they win, Leinster would face an anxious wait over the weekend, needing two of Munster, Clermont, Saracens, Connacht and Wasps to also be defeated.
ULSTER
While Ulster can still technically seal a place in the quarter finals, the chances of it happening are very unlikely.
A bonus point win is guaranteed against Bordeaux-Begles on Saturday afternoon, but unfortunately it is also heavily reliant on other results.
Their chances of qualifying could be over even before they kick off on Saturday though, as they have to rely on results in both of Friday night’s games. Les Kiss will need Leinster to do the business and beat Castres, while they’ll also need the Northampton Saints to beat Montpellier and score LESS than four tries in the process.
Should that come to fruition, they’ll then be hoping that their pool leaders Clermont beat the Exeter Chiefs, before crossing their fingers once again and pray that the Leicester Tigers beat Glasgow by a close to 60 points (this margin can change based on Ulster’s own winning margin).
MUNSTER
Like Leinster, everything is in Munster’s hands.
The quarter final place is secured and with Racing 92 coming to Limerick playing for nothing but pride, the bookies have them as big favourites to be returning to Thomond for a quarter final at the end of March.
Should Racing claim an unlikely win, Munster can still get home advantage, but they would need Saracens to be beaten by Toulon, and hope that the English sides losing margin is greater than their own.
They would also require Connacht to lose in Toulouse on Sunday.
CONNACHT
The final games of the weekend are set to be the most exciting, with three of Pool 2’s four teams vying for the quarter finals.
The logical outcome is that Wasps will beat Zebre with a bonus point, which would bring them to 22 pool points in total, and would guarantee them a place in the knockout stages.
But it’s the meeting of Connacht and Toulouse at the Stade Ernest-Wallon that has the most on the line this weekend.
Connacht’s injury worries appear to be easing, and it couldn’t come at a better time. Pat Lam’s side know that a win in the south of France on Sunday will be enough to keep their European season going beyond the Six Nations.
While every Connacht fan would bite your paw off for that, they can also secure home advantage if they’re feeling greedy. They’ll achieve that with a bonus point victory, provided that one of Munster, Leinster, Saracens or Clermont are beaten.
If Connacht fail to win, that’s when things get interesting.
If the sides draw, Connacht will still claim one of the quarter final places.
If Toulouse win by seven points or less, and score fewer than four tries, Connacht will still advance to the quarter finals.
However if Toulouse win with a bonus point, Connacht will need to score at least four tries, and claim a losing bonus point to advance to the last eight.
