A St Patrick's weekend Six Nations title decider against the 'auld enemy' England at the Aviva Stadium is the prize on offer for the Irish Rugby team in Cardiff this weekend. Joe Schmidt's men have been playing knock out rugby since the opening defeat to Scotland and this game against Wales has all the feeling of a semi final.
'Friday Night Lights' are a big fixture at the RDS and Ravenhill, but it is a Six Nations first for the National team. Ireland have played just three Test matches on a Friday, and the last was a World Cup defeat to France in Paris 10 years ago.
Ireland head into this game on the back of an impressive victory over the French with the added bonus of no new injuries. Ireland lost captain Paul O'Connell, Johnny Sexton, Sean O'Brien and Peter O'Mahony when they beat Les Bleus in Cardiff at the World Cup 18 months ago and fell apart against Argentina at the same venue a week later. O'Connell is now retired, but his successor Rory Best, Sexton and O'Brien are all fit to retain their spots in an unchanged team. O'Mahony, the hero of the big win over Wales in Dublin three years ago, is primed to come off the bench.
Wales have also kept faith with an unchanged starting 15. However, the news has not gone down well on the other side of the Irish sea. With head coach Warren Gatland on Lions duty, it has been a difficult campaign for the Welsh. Trailing Italy at half time in their opening game, they missed out on a bonus point win in Rome and defeats to England and Scotland have followed. They are now facing the prospect of a worst Six Nations showing since 2007, back to back defeats in Cardiff for the first time in 14 years and dropping out of the top 8 of the World rankings, just before the 2019 World Cup draw is made.
Wales may be the hosts, but Ireland can feel quite at home at the Millennium, or what is now known as the Principality Stadium. Tommy Bowe's inclusion on the bench means Joe Schmidt's squad still has 4 players that won the Grand Slam there in 2009. The Welsh capital was also the venue for three of Ireland 's fixtures at the last World Cup. That may have led to the Irish management's decision to allow the stadium roof to be closed. When asked about the roof in the build up to the Grand Slam game 8 years ago, Declan Kidney quipped that Welsh fans can build quite an atmosphere, so it is best to let that out the top. Eddie Jones insisted the roof was open when England played in Cardiff a few weeks ago. Ireland have shown they fear inclement weather more that noisy supporters.
The statistics tell us that Ireland have had around 60 per cent of possession in all three of their games in the Championship so far. The decision to ensure dry conditions and avoid the lottery of a slippy pitch suggests it is a tactic Joe Schmidt wants to deploy again. Wales look far more comfortable with ball in hand. Traditionally a strong defensive team they can run out of ideas when starved of possession and struggle when chasing the game.
Wales were handed the ideal platform of a 12-nil lead when the sides met in Cardiff 2 years ago and held on for a 23-16 victory. Wayne Barnes made some controversial decisions on that day and has not refereed Ireland since. He is the man in the middle again for this match, but having been the focus of many column inches this week, the English official knows his decisions will face tough scrutiny this time.
The bookmakers think this is going to be a tight match with Ireland winning by 3 points. Since the historic victory over the All Blacks, the Irish Rugby team know that they can beat any side on their day. The other side of the coin is that Scotland showed the danger of a drop in performance. Having learnt the lesson of the defeat in Murrayfield and the loss to Wales in Cardiff two years ago, Ireland are determined to avoid another slow start. The opening 20 minutes of this game could tell us a lot, but if it is Ireland who take the early lead, it could be the Welsh Daffodil that wilts and the Shamrock that blooms ahead of the St Patrick's weekend showdown with the English Red Rose.
